The Long Tale: Should Publishers Buy into the Long Tail Theory?

In a mere 10 years, the Internet has shaken media industries to the core. Chris Anderson's long tail theory-that the rise of the searchable Web would unleash an enormous pent-up demand for obscure products-was so compelling that our industry sent his book onto the best-seller lists (wikipedia primer on the long tail theory). But a Harvard Business Review article, "Should You Invest in the Long Tail?" by Anita Elberse, began partially debunking Chris Anderson's theory of the long tail last year, replacing it instead with a less optimistic worldview: The Internet is actually entrenching pop culture more deeply, and Anderson's uprising of niche-loving nerds is a myth.

Anderson's theory has inspired smaller publishers that lack blockbuster promotion budgets. The implications of his theory justified the existence of small-to-midsize publishers. If you publish niche content and make it easy to find, readers will come.

To test Anderson's theory, Elberse (an associate professor of business administration) investigated the music and movie markets, two industries that book publishing has watched closely in the post-Napster, BitTorrent era. Analyzing vast amounts of data made available by Rhapsody, Quickflix, and Nielsen VideoScan, she found the following:

• The long tail is composed of a rapidly growing number of products that rarely or never sell. The tail is longer and thinner, not longer and fatter.
• Best-sellers and blockbusters are more important than ever.
• Most consumers choose the most popular products and only occasionally choose obscure products.
• Those consumers who choose obscure products are the heaviest consumers of the category.

Pulling it all together, Elberse's findings appeal to our common sense: Casual readers read best-sellers; serious readers read best-sellers and less popular books. What's more, she reports that both casual and heavy consumers of a category rate obscure content as less enjoyable and popular content as more enjoyable.

The bottom line is that for each book lover who delights in the discovery of obscure, or classic, books, there are millions who have enjoyed best-sellers. It appears that we are social animals and there is no escaping the tyranny of the masses, even on the Internet. In fact, the Internet, contrary to Anderson's theory, is enabling the masses to reign with an ever heavier hand.

Yet some publishers have found ways to exploit both the best-seller and long tail models. At Nolo, located in Berkeley, California, the long tail begins with the printed book. Jackie Thompson, vice president of trade sales, explains that the book is then reformatted for a variety of uses, many of which fit nicely into the long tail.

"Once we have the information for, say, a business book," she says, "we take that same information and post some of it on Nolo.com for our free Nolopedia, which drives search engine optimization and web traffic. Then we submit the book to Amazon Search Inside and Google Print to drive more traffic to Nolo.com. We format the book as an e-book and an audio book and submit those versions for sale and for licensing. Sometimes we create software or online applications to sell online. We've even put a book together knowing it won't break even in the book trade, but that it will generate significantly more revenue in its various parsed formats on Nolo.com."

When asked the difference between investing in the long tail and in a great website, Thompson says, "For Nolo, investing in the long tail is investing in a great consumer website."

Mike Campbell, director of sales and marketing at Graphic Arts Center in Portland, Oregon, is receptive to Elberse's findings. "Books in the long tail are there for a reason," he says. "Instead of trying to sell books that consumers don't like, publishers need to sell more of what's selling well." His advice? "Build on the success of your hot sellers, and don't try to give equal treatment to long tail books or you'll just confuse your customers."

There has been some great irony to Elberse's findings. Chris Anderson has since posed another theory (Wired, July 2008). Mining massive amounts of data for correlations will replace the testing of hypotheses. Elberse did just that, disproving his long tail theory. Now that Anderson's book is safely off the best-seller lists, perhaps his own book sales will also prove him wrong.

Elberse's findings show us a world in which the best-seller is an increasingly important marketing tool. What does this mean for smaller publishers in 2009 and going forward?

For your general list:

• If you don't have one, invest in a low-cost website. There is no tail at all for publishers without web sales or sales through Amazon.
• Lead your niche. Indie publishers often can't compete at the blockbuster game. If you can't win at mass appeal, then be the best at what you do.
• Divert resources from books with limited appeal and focus on creating best-sellers.

For best-sellers:

• Promote best-selling books to the broadest possible market.
• Match the promotion to appeal: Books with mass appeal should get as much promotional support as possible (and vice versa).
• Lead with your best-sellers. Elberse cites the heavily discounted seventh Harry Potter book as an example.

For long-tail books:

• Spend as little as possible on products with little appeal or low sales. (POD, anyone?)
• Promote books with the narrowest appeal to only the heaviest users of that content.
• Make your long tail books more easily found by the heaviest consumer at the lowest cost possible. or example, line-list less popular books in your catalog, but keep them online.
• Leverage the popularity of your best-sellers by cross-promotion. Think like Amazon and use website cross-sells ("You might also be interested in . . .").
• Bundling best-sellers with less popular books ("Buy X, Get Y") can stimulate long tail sales. Revive old best-sellers in this way.

"Should You Invest in the Long Tail?" by Anita Elberse is available for free online viewing at the Harvard Business Review website. Chris Anderson responds to the article on his blog at longtail.com.

Dave Trendler is Marketing and Publicity Manager at VeloPress, an endurance sports and fitness publisher. To see Dave's previous EndSheet contributions, click here.