The New York Times technology columnist David Pogue celebrated his 10th anniversary column with a brief reflection on the past decade of technology.
To me, it's hard to remember what the web looked like in fall 2000, much less digital cameras (did they exist?) and early forms of all the "convergence" gadgets available today that are just beginning to mash up the web and their legacy technologies.
Pogue identifies some trends that ring of truth and longevity. The trend I found most relevant is this: Nothing replaces anything. Technology simply splinters.
Pogue means that invention inspires copycats. From one iPod came dozens of competing mp3 players. None has "killed" the iPod. The technology simply splintered.
There are exceptions, of course, but the ones I can think of without a decade of reflection seem mostly to be data storage formats: BetaMax, HD-DVD, cassette tape, CD, 8-track tape, vinyl, film cameras, etc.
This should be a relief to purveyors of older standards. As long as your product experience is relevant, your product format can change without destroying your business. Hello? Book publishers?
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