Book publishers are convinced that readers want ebooks. This is because no one is reading books anymore. Make sense?
In 2004, the National Endowment for the Arts released a study that revealed that Americans are reading less and less well than they have in two decades. Just 56% of Americans read a book of any kind in 2002. The publishing industry contends that Americans are not necessarily reading less, they're just reading fewer books.
A Golden Age
Why are Americans reading fewer books? According to people like Kevin Smokler of BookTour.com, we're in the midst of a Golden Age of the Book. Books are better now than they ever have been and there's a huge range of variety; there are more books being published now than at any time in human history. Books are cheaper than they've ever been, thanks to digital production, large print runs, and discounters like Amazon and Costco. Books are also more accessible than ever, with the proliferation of chain stores like Barnes & Noble and Borders, free shipping from Amazon, and continued operation and overhaul of our national library system. And yet, 43% of America has spoken-reading books is less fun and useful than the alternatives.
So what exactly are people reading?
Some in publishing, like all the presenters at last month's O'Reilly TOC Conference, seem to believe that Americans are reading fewer books because they're busy reading on the Internet. Publishing might have some numbers on its side. The U.S. Census Bureau's 2003 study, "Computer and Internet Use in the United States" (pdf) found that 62 percent of America's 70 million households had a computer. 88% of households with a computer also have internet access, meaning that 62 million households, or 55 percent of American households, had internet access. 64% of American adults use a computer either at home or work compared with 86% of children and overall 60% of Americans of any age use the internet. Of course, they're not reading books online-they're reading news sites, checking email, browsing social networking sites, and lord knows what else. But let's not forget that the average American spends 2-3 hours a day watching TV and that online advertisers have long known that most website users spend under two minutes on any given website.
A major theme of the TOC Conference was that Americans are becoming "format agnostic", willing to sift through multiple forms of information and screen out irrelevant material. Others in publishing, like the Boulder Book Store's Arsen Kashkashian, have argued that reading has always been a pasttime of the American few. Regardless, less book reading can't be a good thing for those who make and sell books.
If they're not reading books offline, maybe they'll read them online!
So publishers have arrived at the theory that Americans are reading fewer books because they're reading online and therefore, they must want to read electronic books. Uhh... what? Let's pick this apart. Americans already have over 100,000 free books available to them for download. And there are millions of PDAs, cell phones, tablet PCs, laptops, desktops, and other digital devices that are capable of acting as ebook readers. The truth, as noted above, is that Americans don't particularly want to read books, much less on a screen. Or perhaps we're merely in need of a killer app, an iPod for ebooks.
Amazon's Kindle ebook reader has sparked all this recent interest in ebooks. Amazon launched the device during last holiday season, selling it for an (undiscounted) $400. Obviously, the Kindle is designed for serious book readers, not the average American. In fact, no ebook reader is priced for the average Joe. Ebooks are doomed (for now) because not a single one of the handful of ebook readers that has been on the market for years sells for under $250. Only the most dedicated reader would consider giving up the time-tested form factor of the printed book for a screen. And have you met a serious reader lately? Is she into consumer electronics and USB-enabled devices and web apps?
Someday, because they are mostly digital, ebook reader prices will fall enough that they will become affordable. With smart design-and maybe the Kindle is it-ebook readers might even become widespread. But putting books into digital format is pretty unlikely to convince non-reading Americans to read, because they're busy watching TV. And assuming that ebooks will capture the imagination of a public that now does all it's "reading" online seems pretty irrational.
In the meantime, publishing will be amassing a digital library. The industry's top publishers have already begun offering digital books.
For now, free digital books are a publicity stunt designed to draw print sales (an example of a cross-subsidy). What happens when digital books become free, as they must under Anderson's Law? More later.
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