Monday, March 10, 2008

What the Ebook Will Look Like Once Free

Let's take Chris Anderson's argument and assume that digital books eventually become free to the consumer. What are some ways that publishing can avoid going out of business? Anderson mentions five categories of revenue models that have worked for other categories of product:

Cross-subsidies: Buy one thing and get something else free. There are about a billion ways to run a cross-subsidy: buy the book, get the free movie ticket; buy the print book, get the ebook free; buy the event ticket, get the ebook. The benefits to the publisher and consumer vary depending on the specific offer, but they all involve having two things of value and giving one of them away free. How many book publishers are in that position?

Labor exchange: You get a free ebook after doing some brief work. Anderson uses this example: "you can get free porn if you solve a few captchas". You can get a free book if you do some editing work? Likelihood for book publishing? Not likely.

Gift economy: You get a free ebook, no strings attached. It's free. You win, the publisher loses. Likelihood? Well, I'd say unlikely except that I'm not sure this isn't what's happened to music recording.

"Freemium": The basic version is free, the premium version costs money. Publishers are now publishing two books per book, dumbing down the real book into a free version. Likelihood? Not likely.

Advertising: Every ebook is free, but there are ads in them. Likelihood? Well, it's already happening. More soon.

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