Publishing's "Last-Man-Standing" Strategy

The New York Times reported on itself earlier this month. The publicly-owned company's CEO laid out plans to weather the recession during a conference call:

"As other newspapers cut back on international and national coverage, or cease operations, we believe there will be opportunities for The Times to fill that void,” she said, for both readers and advertisers."

Janet Robinson couldn't be more right. The same scenario is playing out over several two-paper regional metro areas. In Denver, for example, The Denver Post just outlasted The Rocky Mountain News, which today announced that it will publish its last edition tomorrow.

When times are tough, it pays to be bigger, responsibly financed, and better branded. In fact, tough times offer the opportunity to improve all three conditions.

Reality check: Are your expenses in line with your revenues? Are there business functions or products that are not justifying their level of resources? A down economy offers companies a great excuse to bring expenses back into line. Or, as TechCrunch puts it, to preemptively cut costs or eliminate deadweight. Creative destruction destroys many companies, but a little internal destruction can bring your company back down to fighting weight. When the economy comes back, you're already in great shape.

Advertise now! During a recession is the best time to advertise. Ad-supported media like magazines and newspapers are economic bellwethers; ad sales drop soon after retail sales drop. Well financed companies must take advantage of desperate publishers and ad reps to get better placement, better rates, and more runs. Particularly useful is the long-term ad buy. If you signal that you are looking to make a six-month or yearlong advertising commitment, an ad rep will be much more willing to offer a below-rate-card discount. Assuming your competition doesn't undertake the same strategy, your product will be the only one advertising. You can take market share during the recession and invest in your brand while waiting for the economy to rebound. If you are fortunate enough that the economy rebounds before the end of your ad contract, so much the better.

Smell blood? Price like a predator. Is your competition burdened with debt? Do you see any competitors who are relatively weak? A down economy is the best time to put the hurt on your competition. Offer promotional pricing or bundle products in creative ways. Do anything you can to deny revenue to your competitors. Burn cash reserves, knowing that your competitors don't have them.

Any responsibly financed company can undertake the New York Times last-man-standing strategy. Depending on your market, you might be the only one left to serve customers in 2010.